Florida's Housing Boom Stalls

Florida’s red-hot housing streak, sometimes referred to as the Great Migration, has finally snapped — and the cool-down isn’t subtle. After years of explosive growth powered by pandemic-era migration and speculative heat, the state's real estate market is now flashing red.

According to Redfin, March marked the sharpest annual price decline in Florida in over a decade. The median price for all homes dipped 1.7% year-over-year — the first drop of this magnitude in records going back to 2012. And that's just the headline number.

The deeper problem? Demand is vanishing. The post-COVID wave of out-of-state buyers that once supercharged the market has ebbed. Sales are down. Inventory has surged to a record high. And the affordability equation — already stretched — is breaking under the weight of elevated mortgage rates and surging insurance premiums.

Nowhere is the strain more visible than in the condo market, where price drops and ownership costs are hitting a breaking point. Following the tragic Surfside collapse in 2021, Florida tightened regulations, requiring more rigorous inspections and higher reserve funds. That’s translated into special assessments and sky-high maintenance fees that many owners didn’t see coming — or simply can’t absorb.

As a result, condo prices tumbled nearly 7% year-over-year in March, falling to a median of $307,500. Single-family homes fared slightly better, but still slipped around 2%.

“A lot of it is driven by the condos,” says Redfin senior economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “But it seems that the single-family market is also weakening. The pandemic rush to Florida is dying down — and with mortgage rates staying high, it's become unaffordable for many.”

Florida’s housing play — once a banner of pandemic-era migration — may now be the first major market to face a post-boom reckoning.