Will New York City Become a Ghost Town?
Author Michael Lind, of Foreign Policy, makes some bold predictions about a post-recession global economy. The good news? America is well positioned to benefit from a predicted resurgence of commodity prices, and overall we’ll adapt to a scaled back global marketplace pretty well. The bad news? New York City is expected to continue its economic decline, due to our reliance on the financial and publishing industries.
“New York, London, and other financial centers were heavily dependent on financial-sector profits. Throw in the technology-driven collapse of the publishing and broadcast industries headquartered in such places, and those cities are likely to suffer devastating blows. Capitals of both politics and commerce, such as Paris and Tokyo, will adjust the best in the new state-capitalist world. Purely commercial centers such as New York and Frankfurt will suffer the most. Without the obscenely rich investment bankers and the legions of well-paid retainers who supported their lifestyles, formerly flourishing parts of these former financial capitals may become as derelict as Detroit or the crumbling industrial towns of northern Britain and Germany’s Ruhr region.” Source: Michael Lind, Foreign Policy
We’re certainly not as bearish about New York City as Mr. Lind. In the first place, a definition of New York City as a ‘purely commercial center’ wholly ignores the uniqueness of NYC as a social, cultural, political and artistic destination. While not as lucrative as Wall Street, there are other reasons for people to live here than the Financial District. Yet his case for the rest of the country and the world is quite lucid, and for those who agree with his analysis, is a good road map of what to expect macro-economically in the next few years.
